Via Kathy Sandler’s Technology • Innovation • Publishing comes a link to The Guardian‘s report on TikTok’s plans to sell books direct to customers. Coming as this does in the same week as Amazon’s announcement of layoffs in its book division, this story must encourage speculations into Amazon’s possible abandonment of the book business. Publishers Weekly weighs the evidence.
Amazon clearly still maintains a hugely dominant position in the book retail world. They are currently ordering vigorously for this Christmas season, and will no doubt be selling a pile of books for months (years?) to come. But one thing of which we can be confident is that their business is not directed by sentiment. If they see an opportunity to enhance their prospects by abandoning books, books will be abandoned. And bear in mind they have three strands to their bookselling business: the retail operation, the Kindle and ebooks, and Audible.com for audiobooks. They are also a publisher.
Rather straw-in-windish perhaps is Princeton University’s announcing their new ability to sell audio-and ebooks direct-to-consumer via Glassboxx. We may not be watching a huge amount of change in publishers’ readiness to sell direct, but trickles under the dam, around the dam, and through the dam can ultimately lead to the collapse of the dam and a transformational flood. Movement is surely in the direction of more publishers selling more stuff direct to customers, which might suggest an anticipatory repositioning to cope with a post-Amazon world. If you pooh-pooh that, consider also Bookshop.com, which is quite successfully providing an e-commerce solution for independent bookstores.
Not immediately relevant but nevertheless an issue to consider in developing your sympathies, Amazon has (like lots of other businesses) received copious subsidization from state and local governments for creating jobs around the country. Good Jobs First details the situation. (Thanks to Nate Hoffelder for the link.) Most of these jobs will no doubt continue to exist of course if Amazon does ever decide that it’s easier and more profitable to sell things other than books.
At The New Publishing Standard Mark Williams warns that we should be wary of Amazon’s doing to books what they just did to music — putting it all onto Amazon Prime. With their ownership of Audible.com Amazon has the ability to direct one stream at least of the book business into an unlimited subscription model. Now of course as long as you as a publisher or author are adequately rewarded for such usage, an unlimited subscription model can be a good thing.
Making Book 
Interesting! (Reminder to self: follow up on BookTok. And see what else is commented here.)
I doubt that Amazon will get out of the book business. The current layoffs across tech is much more about rising interest rates than profit-and-loss statements in any particular unit. This particular set of layoffs looks to me like a short term cash flow issue. That being said, the reduction of resources devoted to books is in theory an opportunity for someone else to step up. Of course any “someone else” is in the same financial environment of higher interest rates, so I guess it won’t. Perhaps publishers stepping up their direct sales? Most or all now have the capability, but I don’t see them aggressively marketing this fact.
Well, you’re probably right, but I do think it’s not a tremendously profitable business for them — though of course not loss making. No doubt the tentative steps by publishers to try out selling direct to customer are nothing but coincidence. And I agree it’d be tough to set up in competition with them. Bookshop.com is probably unique.
Setting up competition: The “someone else” can’t be you and me pitching the idea of venture capital outfits. Quite aside from any other considerations (you prepare the slide deck: trust me on this), the higher interest rates are drying up the “what the hell” money out there. The sensible, though possibly illegal, solution would be for the big five to get together and pool their resources. The advantage Amazon has to readers is that they are pretty close to the Everything Store for books. Any competitor that can’t at least come close would be at a terminal disadvantage. Given that they have given up on protecting physical bookstores as their primary market, they would be best positioned to reproduce that Everything Store, especially if they give liberal terms to independents. Or perhaps Ingram would be the other potential player here?
I think effectively it’s nobody who can set up a competing system. I suspect Ingram is sitting pretty as wholesale supplier to everyone, and are too savvy to move beyond their bailiwick. Indeed the collusion lawsuit against Amazon and the Big Five seems to be rearing its head again.
“But one thing of which we can be confident is that their business is not directed by sentiment. If they see an opportunity to enhance their prospects by abandoning books, books will be abandoned. ”
One small piece of Amazonian lore is the fact corners of their website still to this day bare the scars of a micromanaging early 2000s Jeff B who did the job himself.
Designers in the trade of moving clicks into the shopping cart despair at the lost percentages.
The human ego being what it is, I doubt the man who dropped a 10 figure sum on moon rockets after a conversation with Neil Stephenson will get out of the book trade while he draws breathe.
Maybe you’re right, though Mr Bezoss will no doubt become less and less involved. Actually, I hope you’re right.